system two

system two
start-up thinking in the enterprise

Tuesday, 29 December 2009

Wobbly bridges, marching bands, traffic jams and 21st centruy marxism (aka "The charitable hedge fund")....6

Looks like we'll end December around 400 points up. Took a bit of a bashing over the Christmas period, and after some analysis it looks like trading over the festive system isn't such a clever thing to do....the model is based indirectly on volume and momentumn - relatively few people trading means indicators were triggering, when under normal circumstances they've have remained within range.

January we go to £1 a point. 8 markets now in play.....

Very long - but very good

Thursday, 24 December 2009

The brilliant Juliet Schor...


A devastating and brilliant analysis of our profoundly dysfunctional society

Wednesday, 23 December 2009

Dell and twitter - they aren't doing it for the money...

Why is it perpetually reported that because Dell makes money from Twitter everyone else can?

Dell is a multi-billion dollar enterprise. As a proportion of revenue - their Twitter income is farting in a thunderstorm. If you took that ratio and applied it to a "normal" - sub £100m business - it wouldn't be worth getting out of bed for - certainly wouldn't provide any sort of return on capital.

Twitter is the best PR tool Dell ever had - but that's all it is....

Thursday, 17 December 2009

Copenhagen isn't the answer

We came from small, local communities. It is to those that we are returning. The climate issue (amongst others) will only be addressed successfully in these forums.

Forget Copenhagen and its grand people with their grand plans. We'll find no answer with them.

Wednesday, 16 December 2009

Wobbly bridges, marching bands, traffic jams and 21st centruy marxism (aka "The charitable hedge fund")....5

Looks like December will be the first month the charitable hedge fund turns a bone fide profit.

We're some 300 points up this month. From a further modification at the end of November - the traders are now working 24hrs - trading 8 different markets. In January - with some time off over Christmas I hope to expand that number to 16.

All means - come mid next year - we should be in a position to be handing out the cash for real - and for me to retire....

Wednesday, 9 December 2009

3 scenarios - all bad...

The 3 most likely scenarios for our economy over the next 3-5 years.

1. As the fiscal stimulus is rolled back, we realise we've created a massive asset bubble in commodities and stocks. Gold goes to $5,000 and ounce, the stock market tanks, economic growth falls back - standards of living start to decline.

2. As the fiscal stimulus is rolled back, we fail to realise we've created a massive asset bubble in commodities and stocks. Consumers keep spending (a bit). Due to the value of the pound we start importing inflation even in a low growth environment. Gold goes to $10,000 an ounce, the stock market tanks, economic growth falls back, standards of living start to decline.

3. As the fiscal stimulus is rolled back, we fail to realise we've created a massive asset bubble in commodities and stocks. Consumers keep spending - quite a bit – economic growth picks up to reasonable levels - inflation goes nuts. The government of the day, keen to be perceived to be acting early, lift interest rates. Everyone realises no real recovery had taken place. Gold goes to $10,000 an ounce, the stock market tanks, economic growth falls back, standards of living start to decline.

sCRM - social customer relationship management

A sensible post on something vaguely related to my proper job....

I've been looking into social CRM and community research tools for a new business unit we're setting up at Dig called Demograph.

Jeremiah Owyang's blog provided some great background research into the topic and a matrix of the main players in the space here. In fact there seems to be a weird synchronicity between what he posted about and what I need. Another article on listening strategy here came at a perfect time for a client in the Healthcare space.

A 15 min video, on a particular social CRM product here which, although a little dry - gives a good overview of the practical application of these types of technologies.

Tuesday, 8 December 2009

The biology of self deception...

Very interesting clip here on self deception.

Chomsky seems somehow deflated these days. There is a resigned ambivalence to him, where once there was real passion.

Sad but inevitable I guess, when you are the only sane person in the world!