Peak oil created the current financial melt down.
Few people in power talk about this of course. To do so would be to accept an important variable in the well being of western consumerism is unknown - and we humans (and our money) don't do unknowns.
A Buddhists might point out nothing is in our control - and attempts to kid ourselves otherwise only drive us further into the warm embrace of chaos - but we digress...
The point is - a lack of oil (whether real or imaginary) seems likely to drive its price higher any time anyone mentions “green shoots”.
For this reason, my prediction is we'll see politicians continue to deny, in black and white terms, the possibility of depression (as they are now doing, by frequently talking about the end of a “recession” they have no way of knowing exists and whose presence no data currently supports) but begin to speak about economic recovery much more obliquely.
This is Beelzebub’s economic feast.
Economic stagnation becomes a self fulfilling prophesy - the resources on which growth is based, becoming a luxury item, every time the economy looks like its turning a corner.
Good news for oil speculators, the green movement and those of us with stupidly large mortgages though....