3 senarios - all bad...

The 3 most likely scenarios for our economy over the next 3-5 years.

1. As the fiscal stimulus is rolled back, we realise we've created a massive asset bubble in commodities and stocks. Gold goes to $5,000 and ounce, the stock market tanks, economic growth falls back - standards of living start to decline.

2. As the fiscal stimulus is rolled back, we fail to realise we've created a massive asset bubble in commodities and stocks. Consumers keep spending (a bit). Due to the value of the pound we start importing inflation even in a low growth environment. Gold goes to $10,000 an ounce, the stock market tanks, economic growth falls back, standards of living start to decline.

3. As the fiscal stimulus is rolled back, we fail to realise we've created a massive asset bubble in commodities and stocks. Consumers keep spending - quite a bit – economic growth picks up to reasonable levels - inflation goes nuts. The government of the day, keen to be perceived to be acting early, lift interest rates. Everyone realises no real recovery had taken place. Gold goes to $10,000 an ounce, the stock market tanks, economic growth falls back, standards of living start to decline.

sCRM - social customer relationship management

A sensible post on something vaguely related to my proper job....

I've been looking into social CRM and community research tools for a new business unit we're setting up at Dig called Demograph.

Jeremiah Owyang's blog provided some great background research into the topic and the main players in the space here. In fact there seems to be a werid synchonististy between what he posted about and what I need. Another artcile on listening strategy here came at a perfect time for a client in the Healthcare space.

Point being - I came across a 15min video on a particular social CRM product - here which, although a little dry - gave me a good overview of the practical application of these types of technologies.

The biology of self deception...

Very interesting clip here on self deception.

Chomsky seems somehow deflated these days. There is a resigned ambivalence to him where once there was real passion.

Sad but inevitable I guess when you are the only sane person in the world!

Its not rocket science kids....

Social Media Marketing – Return On Investment –

View more presentations from dig for fire - part of the DMG group.

More TED Genius - Be proud to have moral heros...

Be proud to have moral heros...

Wobbly bridges, marching bands, traffic jams and 21st centruy marxism (aka "The charitable hedge fund")....4

Wow! It's working....

Nearly 3 months in and what was happening on an excel macro appears to be happening in real life...

Not been totally plain sailing - have had to rebuild / tweek things several times to cope with the live trading environment - IG index keeps pretty quiet about the additional spread you pay on every trade that rolls over - GGRRRRR - but on the whole though - we're looking good.

Still a long way to go - but the principle appears to hold. In the New Year once we come out of this alpha phase - I might migrate these posts to a separate blog. But in the meantime - watch this space....

Losing control...

When I see posts like this I find myself part excited, part fearful.

The web, like a large urban metropolis, is now so vast, so densely populated (and so integral to life) - that traffic can now move within it, without fear (on any practical level) of being noticed, intercepted or stopped.